The back of my house faces south and so gets baked by the sun.
Accordingly, while the exterior paint on the window trim and doors elsewhere on
house lasts five to seven years on the back of the house it lasts only two. I repaint
the surfaces myself for the same reasons I mow my own lawn: I’m cheap and the
task is within my skill set. I’ve purchased the brown paint. I’ll probably
break out the drop cloths and brushes sometime in the next month. (I didn’t say
I was ambitious.)
The paint purchase raised the question (because why wouldn’t
it?) of how long homeowners have been slathering protective paints on their
walls and trim. It seems like something even ancient Sumerians would have done
but apparently this is not the case. Painters as artists expressed themselves far back in prehistory,
sometimes with stunning results such as in the caves at Lascaux. Yet they
didn’t just paint the walls a monocolor (white, blue, or red, or whatever) in
order to brighten up the cave. Nor were later huts and houses so
decorated. They were left natural mud or brick or wood or whatever the walls
happened to be. By early Greek times colors were sometimes mixed into the
finishing plasters, but those are not house paint in the usual sense. I’m
referring here to private residences, by the way. Public buildings and palaces
received special paint treatment, as did statuary. The stately white marble of
ancient Greek and Roman temples looked quite different back in the day. The
Parthenon, the archetypical stately temple, originally had garishly painted
friezes and architectural elements. It must have been awful. The private homes
of the wealthy in classical times often had elaborate interior murals, but
again that is quite different from simply painting a wall (inside or out) a
solid canary yellow. The reason was the difficulty in ancient times of producing
paint in anything more than small batches using animal blood, charcoal, ochre,
oils, colored clays, minerals, egg whites (really), and various other organic
materials. If you are going to go to all that trouble you might as well do
something more with the end product than smear it on a wall. So, paint was
mostly for art and the ornamentation of public structures. It had to await
better large batch production techniques to be affordable for average
homeowners, which didn’t come along until after 1200 CE. Medieval housepainter guilds
formed about this time to protect their secrets, restrict competition, and keep
up prices – a clear indicator housepainting finally had caught on, particularly
after 1500. Those fun-fearful Puritans, of course, objected: in 17th
century colonial Massachusetts they made colorful paint jobs illegal since they
displayed vanity and frivolity. The non-Puritan colonies were more
experimental. In the 19th century chemistry became more scientific
and paint mixing was largely mechanized. Several major paint producers still in
business today got their start then. Safety and environmental concerns (notably
the removal of lead from housepaints) altered the mixes in the 20th century. I don’t know how the Puritans would have felt about my window
trim. Brown isn’t very colorful really. It is not far off the natural color of
the wood. Somehow I suspect they would have found something objectionable. The
most objectionable paint is inside the house, but it is hidden. The housepainter
(deceased for decades now) who painted my house when it was new had an artistic
streak and a personal quirk. He also hung wallpaper, but he always painted and
signed a mural somewhere in a house before he covered the wall with paper. We
all hope to have an impact beyond our time on earth, and this was his way. He
knew that eventually the wallpaper would be replaced, and his artwork and name
would appear again. So somewhere underneath the grasscloth paper in my living
room is a mural signed by Lenny. I don’t expect ever to see it, but someone
someday probably will. My window trim paint, on the other hand, will need
another coat in only a couple of years.
My case of COVID-19 some months ago
(yes, I was vaccinated and boosted but got it anyway) was mild enough that I
didn’t bother to mention it in my blogs or social media. The weather was still
sufficiently unwelcoming at the time that staying at home for a while (longer
than the CDC protocols) was not a big departure from what I would have done
anyway. I felt lousy for a week (much like a standard cold) and then felt fine.
Almost. There was one lingering aftereffect: my energy and stamina took a hit
that did not recover on its own. I felt perfectly normal when sitting or just
standing around, but just walking 100 feet was as taxing as it previously would
have been to run an all-out 100-meter dash. I needed to stop and catch my
breath – no exaggeration. It was such a mortality reminder that I actually was
motivated to revise my will and end-of-life documents – though if the stock
market and consumer prices continue to perform the way they have lately, those
won’t be of much consequence to anyone anyway. My response was to attempt to build stamina
back with daily walks. Many people much older than I run multi-kilometer races
and work out in gyms, of course; back on April 3 I blogged about Edward Weston
who in 1909 walked from New York to San Francisco in 105 days at age 70 and
then walked from Los Angeles to New York in 78 days the following year. I’m not
as ambitious as any of those people. I just wanted again to be able to walk
from my car to the supermarket door without wondering if I’d be able to walk
back. Lots of my neighbors walk on my street – a lightly trafficked cul-de-sac –
for exercise, usually with their dogs, but I prefer a more solitary hike. I
live on five acres (two hectares), four of which are wooded. Years ago I hacked
a trail through my woods with enough twists and turns to make a fairly lengthy
path.
The trail
c. 200 y.o. stone hedgerow. Someone once worked very hard on this.
Did walking in the woods help? Yes,
though for a few weeks I wasn’t sure it would. At first I literally (not
figuratively) would have to stop every 50 or 100 feet (depending on the slope) to
catch my breath. Sometimes more often. But by the end of a month I could walk
the full circuit without stopping or gasping. Now I’m pretty much back to
normal. (Normal by the standards of my pre-COVID 2022, that is: I’d prefer
normal for my 1973, but we take what we can get.) The wood trail also promotes
personal serenity, or so I’ve always found, which is why I made it in the first
place. There is something about being surrounded by leaves and trees instead of
people that eases the tensions. With the exception of four college years
in downtown DC, I’ve been fortunate always to have woods a few meters from my
door – not always deep woods but thick enough to enter and see only trees, at
least in spots. A good part of my first 6 years was spent actually in a tree:
there was a tree at the edge of woods by our house with branches that made it
ideal for climbing. In 1959 my family moved to Brookside. In back of the house was a
hillside stretch of woods with a marvelous path that went all the way to the
elementary school I attended. It was my most common way to get there and back
when the weather wasn’t bad. This is now a linear park, but at the time it was
still the R.O.W. of the long defunct Rockaway Valley Railroad, so I rarely encountered
other walkers. The school itself abutted woods with trails and a stream (which
the kids for unknown reasons dubbed Balboa); we were forbidden to enter it
during unsupervised (!) recess so of course that is where we went. My own first
home (sold in 2000) was a cabin in the woods. What of those four years in DC?
Sometimes I would walk from 19th St NW (near F) across Arlington
Memorial Bridge all the way to Theodore Roosevelt Island, a wooded park in the
Potomac with an entrance on the Virginia side. It was a bit of a hike (check a
map) but I did it without a thought, which explains my nostalgia for my 1973
stamina. Anyway, (once again) I’m not ambitious
enough to try to emulate Mr. Weston or even some of my dog-walking neighbors.
However, I need to stop at the supermarket today. It’s a simple joy to be able
to do it again without gasping for breath in the parking lot. Afterward the
woods trail beckons. It’s no Appalachian Trail, but for my purposes it is long
enough.
t may come as a surprise to the reader
that I’m occasionally wrong. I presume there is much about which I’m wrong all
the time, though I could be wrong about that. There are many ways to be wrong. There
are moral wrongs, but these can be fuzzy since there are different moral
systems. (The Nietzschean view is that those out of power devise moral
definitions that make it only “fair” that they gain power, while those in power
embrace moral definitions that make it only “fair” that they stay there.)
People sometimes experience religious or political conversions and decide their
former views were wrong. (These are often deeply unsettling in a way analogous
to the five stages of grief, since former views are typically integral to sense
of self.) In my experience, to the extent such conversions are philosophical rather
than just emotional reactions to some event, they usually involve a
reexamination of first principles about what it means to be human in the
presence of other humans. (Goethe: "Once you have missed the first
buttonhole, you'll never manage to button up.”) First principles can differ. One
simply can be mistaken about facts (e.g. believing an object is closer or
farther away than is actually is), either from misperception or misinformation.
(This implies that there is an objective reality – a truth about which to be
wrong; this is a matter of more philosophical contention than one might think,
but it is useful to posit it as true in ordinary circumstances.) We can
misspeak and we can make false assumptions. My mom, who was spontaneous in
social settings, was famous for both. Three of my favorite mom “oops” moments
also illustrate why we hate being wrong. Decades ago she was at a neighbor’s
backyard tennis party where all the women (except her) wore bright white tennis
outfits. She had intended to say, “It looks like everyone here has been using
Clorox,” which she later admitted itself would have been a somewhat snippy
remark. What she in fact said was, “It looks like everyone here has been using
Clairol,” which was met by silence. Not long afterward at a meeting of local
businesspeople (she was a real estate broker), she spoke to a local storeowner
[I’ve changed his name]: “Hi Brad. Is this your mother?” It was his wife. At
another business association dinner a waiter placed a bowl in front of her. She
sampled the contents with a spoon and assumed it was some kind of gourmet cold
spicy soup. After a few more spoonfuls, another person at the table spoke up,
“Robina, are you really going to eat all of our salad dressing?” Each of these
was a minor faux pas in the scheme of
things but each was also mortifying in a way we’ve all experienced at some time
or other but never want to experience again. Much as we hate being wrong, we find
pleasure in pointing out the wrongness of others. We don’t even seem to care if
it is our own knowledge and skill that prevails. Who has not had one’s statements
(say, on the price of a new Tesla) fact-checked in real time by someone
Googling on a cell phone? If any discrepancy turns up, no matter how small, the
satisfaction of the Googler is as real as if he personally had memorized the
MSRPs of every model beforehand.
There are many books on error, but there
is one in particular I enjoyed reading this past week. In her book Being Wrong: Adventuresin the Margin of Error, author Kathryn Schulz examines all the various ways we
get it wrong, how we acknowledge it, how we (all too often) deny it, how we
(also all too often) blame the error on others, how we persist in error against
solid evidence (e.g. confirmation bias and sunk cost bias), and how we (at
best) grow from the experience. Schulz, journalist for Rolling Stone, The New York Times, The Boston Globe, the Nation, et al.,
has an informative but breezy style that doesn’t talk down even while she shows
genuine erudition. She relies heavily on recent research but is just as likely
to discuss a classical author. When she writes about Sully, or Plato, or
Shakespeare, or Freud, or Proust, or whomever she always has something
interesting to say without an assumption that the reader is unfamiliar with the
works in question. Many of our errors result in ultimately
minor humiliations. Others can be truly destructive. Take the wrongness of
memory. Many minor arguments are over conflicting memories. Schulz mentions an
overheard argument at the train station between a husband and wife because the
husband bought pound cake instead of crumb cake. “You said ‘pound cake,’” he
said. “I said ‘crumb cake,’” she answered. “You said ‘pound cake,’” he
repeated. “I said crumb cake.” The exchange went on. One of them was wrong –
maybe both if she said “round cake.” I had a similar incident the other day. I
recounted to a friend a story involving my dad and uncle during World War 2. Against
policy after the Sullivan brothers died in the same sinking, they by pure
chance had been assigned to the same ship. Taking place in the port of Naples,
the story includes the Shore Patrol and a German air raid. “You told me this
story before, but you said it was Marseille,” my friend said, happy to correct
me. “I said it was Naples,” I answered. “I always say it is Naples. The story
wouldn’t even make sense in Marseille.” “You said it was Marseille,” he
insisted. One of us remembered wrong. I’m quite sure it was my friend who was
wrong, but absolutely 100% sure? After all he is almost certainly right that I
told him the story before (I’ve told it enough times over the years that I don’t
remember who has heard it and who hasn’t), so one must admit the possibility
(though I still regard it as unlikely) that I misspoke rather than that he
misremembered. That example is of little consequence,
but there can be devastating consequences to the faulty memories of
eyewitnesses. For more than a century (early experiments were conducted in
1900) it has been known how poor and malleable eyewitness testimony can be.
Witnesses primed with mugshots, for example, commonly pick from live lineups
someone from the mugshots rather than anyone who was actually at the scene of a
crime, and the false memory hardens with time. Vividness of memory has little
to do with its accuracy. The Innocence Project reexamines cases of people
convicted of crimes based primarily on eyewitness (sometimes face-to-face
eyewitness) testimony by testing DNA evidence when it still exists. So far 375
convictions have been overturned, often after the falsely accused person had
spent years in prison. In the 1980s there was a spate of convictions based on
“recovered memories.” Within a decade it became clear just how unreliable such
memories were, leading to the most egregious cases being reopened. Schulz in her final chapter has an
optimistic message: “We get things wrong because we have an enduring confidence
in our own minds; and we face up to that wrongness in the faith that, having
learned something, we will get it right the next time.” I hope she is right
about that.
Spring arrived late this year in my part
of the world. Chilliness long outstayed its welcome. Something approaching
summery weather at last has arrived, however: enough so that I treated myself
to a milkshake the other day. (Vanilla, no apologies; I don’t dislike chocolate
or more exotic flavors but in truth I prefer vanilla.) At one of my favorite diner
haunts, it came garnished with whipped cream in a container that was fairly common
(not typical, but fairly common) when I was a kid though infrequent today: still
in the tall stainless steel mixing cup rather than a glass. It was a generous
serving and a satisfying one. Naturally it caused me to wonder
(because why wouldn’t it?) just how long ago one could order a milkshake. After
all, iced drinks date to ancient times. Runners in ancient Rome, China, and
Mesoamerica would bring snow down from the mountains for sale in town; if they
were fast enough, some wouldn’t melt. Milk has been drunk since prehistory. Ice
cream in the modern sense dates to the 1600s. So all the ingredients have been
in place for a long time. Yet, there is no mention of it in Samuel Johnson's Dictionary of the English
Language (1785) or in 19th century recipe books. The current Oxford English Dictionary tells us that
the word “milkshake” can be documented by 1885. If you ordered one in 1885,
however, you would be in for a surprise. It was milk, egg, and whiskey – a sort
of rough-and-ready eggnog. Ice cream was not an ingredient. There still are
milk-based alcoholic beverages, of course, but they have other names such as
White Russian (vodka, Kahlua, and milk or cream) and Cow Shot (Southern Comfort
and milk). [Digression: de gustibus
and all that, but IMO Southern Comfort is dreadful on its own (what was Janis
Joplin thinking?) but makes an excellent mixer inlieu of bourbon.] Nonalcoholic
(and non-egg) “milkshakes” appeared in soda shops by 1900, but they did not
include ice cream either; the ingredients were milk, malt, and various favored
syrups. It turns out there is a precise answer
as to when, where, and by whom the modern milkshake was created. In 1922 Ivar
“Pop” Coulson was working the soda fountain counter at a Chicago Walgreens.
Malted milk (milk, malt, and chocolate syrup) was already on the menu, but he
decided to add two scoops of vanilla ice cream to the blend. The concoction was
a hit and by 1930 this version of a milkshake was offered at soda fountains
nationwide. The malt was optional and different flavors (primarily chocolate
and strawberry) and garnishes appeared almost immediately. In the 1930s Fred
Waring invented a dedicated blender to speed the making of milkshakes, and that
is pretty much where things still stand today.
Love Finds Andy Hardy (1938)
Soda fountains and malt shops were once
much more prevalent than today. Some were specialized shops but up until the mid-60s almost every
drug store had a soda counter that offered milkshakes as well. My parents, who met in
high school in the 1940s, got to know each other over milkshakes after movie
dates. (He was a chocolate man, she usually ordered strawberry.) Dedicated malt
shops have become rarer since then, but they have not entirely disappeared.
Milkshakes are readily available elsewhere, of course, such as at fast food
outlets and diners. So, since this year happens to be the
100th anniversary of the modern milkshake, on June 21, which is not
only the solstice but National Vanilla Milkshake Day (really), I’ll drink a
milky toast to Pop Coulson.
There are (sometimes overlapping) fads in movies and popular
entertainment: the noir of the 40s/50s, the Westerns of the 50s/60s, the scifi
following the success of Star Wars, and
so on. Examples of each genre turn up after its fad generally has passed, to be
sure, but those examples stand out just for that reason. Since 2000 comic
book-based superhero movies have consumed ever larger studio budgets and
generated (despite the occasional bad miss) ever larger box offices. A few are
solid works of art by any standards, but most are at best forgettable even if
entertaining in the moment. It is remarkable just how long-lived this fad has
been. A slew of films with budgets in the hundreds of millions of dollars are in
production and post-production at this moment, while comic book publishers
explore new characters in hopes of creating the next massive franchise.
Superheroes must speak to something in 21st century public psychology.
Fantasy and wish fulfillment are at the bottom of it of course, but that is the
case in every genre of entertainment. Plenty of psychologists and social
observers have tried to identify what the current appeal of superheroes in
particular might be. I don’t have any special additional insights, so I’ll
leave the head-scratching about it to them. I do insist, however, that it is the villain who makes a
superhero movie watchable at all. (Not an original view, I know, but true.) The
villain provides the necessary challenge and is almost always the better role.
The best written ones are not mindless thugs, sadists, or psychopaths. The real
world has a full share of those, and they cost us dearly without any upside.
The best fictional villains are understandable on some level. Some are even
sympathetic. Dr. Horrible is a case in point. Four years before he was handed
200,000,000 studio dollars to write and direct The Avengers, Joss Whedon whimsically made the silly but enjoyable Dr. Horrible's Singalong Blogfor virtually zero dollars and then gave it
away for free on the internet. The hero, Captain Hammer, is a pompous posturing
ass, while Dr. Horrible just seeks love and respect. Dr. Horrible is still on
the wrong side, but we the viewers can’t help liking him more. So, too, with villains
with better studio funding. It’s not enough for one to say “I want to rule the
world” to be interesting. Rather, it’s more understandable to hear, “I want to rule the world to
make it a better place, and it will
be a better place when everyone just shuts up and does what I say.” This is
every bit as villainous as the simple egotism of the former quote, and in many
ways scarier, but we get it. After all, reader, wouldn’t the world be a better
place if everyone would do what we say?
Becoming a superhero is a little out of reach. There is
never a radioactive spider when you need one, and getting belted by gamma rays
won’t make you the Hulk. It will just kill you. Fortunately, award-winning
comics writer Ryan North tells us that it is entirely possible to become a
supervillain in the real world in his book How
to Take Over the World: Practical Schemes and Scientific Solutions for the
Aspiring Supervillain. No superpowers are required. Money is. However, all
the schemes in the book together add up to a cost of some 56 billion dollars.
This is a lot, but not more than Congress commonly tacks on to some existing spending
bill just as an afterthought. (One of the schemes in the books involves hacking
elections, so that is one indirect way to raise the cash.) He makes a point of
sticking to the scientifically possible, albeit often difficult: e.g. cooling
the climate with high altitude sulfates (as volcanoes do naturally) with all
the blackmail possibilities that suggests. He distinguishes between practical
and possible. A secret lair, for example, is most practically and economically hidden
in plain sight as a sublevel under a commercial building or even a private
home, but it is possible to float a high altitude sphere for your lair. This
idea actually dates to 1958. Buckminster Fuller noted that the cube volume law
(volume increases according to the cube of linear dimensions, so a person twice
as tall as another will have eight times the volume if relative body proportions remain the same) means that if you made a
geodesic sphere large enough, the mass of the structural elements would become
a mere rounding error when calculating the total mass including the air inside.
Heating the air inside (transparent greenhouse panels would do the trick) would
make the whole object lighter than the surrounding air at normal altitudes and
up it would go. North calculates a sphere 1.6 kilometers in diameter would work
great. However, one can see how a 1.6 kilometer floating sphere would make a
pretty easy and fat target. North says his book “identifies hitherto unexploited
weaknesses in our global civilization… In other words, this is a book of
non-fiction about becoming a literal
supervillain and taking over the world.”
Since North himself hasn’t tried any of his schemes (to my knowledge), I
suspect none is easy. But it is nice to know it can be done. Anyone have $56
billion to spare?
I visited an old friend with cognitive issues (and no internet presence) recently. He is
no longer good at distinguishing between events he imagines and events that
actually happened. Under the circumstances, in his case this is mostly a
harmless quirk. He told me he had purchased a house, for example. He didn’t,
but he seemed to enjoy thinking he had, so I saw no reason to contradict him. We are all Walter Mittys with elaborate fantasies spinning in
our heads in which we are the stars. We generally know they are fantasies. When
we believe them they are delusions. (We all harbor some delusions, too, but
that is a subject for another time.) What is surprising is just how much time
an average person spends daydreaming: “watching your own mental videos” as Yale
professor emeritus Jerome Singer put it. According to numerous studies it is
between 30% and 47% of our waking hours. Sometimes it’s intentional and
sometimes we just zone out when reading something boring or performing a dull
task. We usually snap back to the real world fairly quickly.
1947 adaptation of James Thurber's short story
Recent research suggests daydreaming ought not be considered
a bad thing, assuming it doesn’t crowd out too much of real life. On the
contrary it helps us form our values and sense of self by testing them in
extraordinary situations without actual risk. It exercises our brains to recall
the past, imagine the future, and make novel connections among disparate pieces
of information. It thereby enhances creativity. It is positively correlated
with productivity at work. Smithsonian
Magazine notes that “researchers from the University of Wisconsin and the
Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Science, suggests that a
wandering mind correlates with higher degrees of what is referred to as working
memory.” “Working memory” is what it sounds like: an ability to retain and call
up memories even when faced with distractions. The upshot is that all the
mental work we put into making coherent daydreams enhances our capacities in
ways that are transferable to the real world. Daydreams most obviously inspire authors and artists. Woody
Allen, Tim Burton, and J.K. Rowling all credit their best work to daydreams.
This is not a new observation. Sigmund Freud noted, “A piece of creative
writing, like a daydream, is a continuation of, and a substitute for, what was
once the play of childhood.” Yet they inspire scientists and engineers too. Robert Goddard, father of modern rocketry, credited his childhood daydreams of
flights to Mars for his work in the field. Are there downsides? Sure, for some people it is like a drug.
For them real life can’t compare. Addicts of any kind have a hard time paying
bills and keeping friends, and chronic daydreamers are no different. Others get
depressed that real life never measures up to their imaginations. But, of
course, it’s not supposed to measure up. I do not know, but I’d be willing to
bet Elon Musk daydreams about colonies around Alpha Centauri. That is not
happening in his lifetime or the lifetime of anyone alive today, but that
doesn’t make what SpaceX has accomplished so far any less remarkable. Still
others set their hearts on aspects of their fantasies, which of course is a
recipe for heartbreak. In general, though, we benefit from our mental excursions
provided we remember the difference between the real and make-believe. If the
day ever comes, however, when I say (and clearly believe) I bought a house when
you know I didn’t, be kind and don’t argue.
The representatives of every nation say its weapons and
military exist to deter aggression. No one ever believes it. This is nothing
new. The Romans famously claimed all their conquests were in self-defense. The same
goes for individual weapons systems; they are supposed to be scary enough to
deter aggressors. The modern industrial arms race really picked up steam
(literally as well as figuratively) in the late 19th century,
especially (but not limited to) with regard to naval weaponry. Better armor
called forth better guns to defeat it. New classes of vessels such as torpedo
boats begat counter-vessels such as torpedo boat destroyers. On land (and,
later, air) the firepower race accelerated. For a few decades, many people
really believed these developments were making war “unthinkable.” Hiram Maxim,
inventor of the Maxim machine gun, said, “Only a general who was a barbarian
would send his men to certain death against the concentrated power of my new
gun." In World War I, generals from every combatant army did exactly that. Yet there was a hint by the end of WW1 that some weapons
really might be too scary to use. Poison gas was not used on the battlefield in
World War 2. Experience in WW1 had indicated that there was no military
advantage to be gained when both sides employed it; gas just pointlessly increased
suffering without changing the balance of forces on the ground. So in WW2 even
in desperate circumstances no party resorted to it on the battlefield. However,
later in the 20th century not all militaries were so circumspect,
notably in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88). So far, however, nuclear weapons truly have been different.
Since 1949 when the US monopoly of nuclear weapons was broken, they really have
deterred. The risk of retaliation has made them too scary to use. Nine nations
currently possess nuclear weapons, eight of them openly. (Israel doesn’t
acknowledge possessing them but everyone assumes it does; South Africa
dismantled its nukes after 1989.) Only China has announced a “no first use”
policy; all the others reserve the right to use them not just in retaliation
but in circumstances where the existence of the state is at risk. Possession of
these weapons has not deterred proxy wars, but it has deterred the nuclear
armed powers from tangling with each other directly. It must have occurred to
both Moammar Gadhafi and Saddam Hussein that things might have gone differently
had they been so armed. It clearly occurs to the leadership of Iran. The risk,
of course, even assuming sane leadership all around, is miscalculation during
diplomatic brinkmanship games. If one side or another feels existentially
threatened, a limited tactical demonstration of nuclear force could escalate out of
control. This always has been and remains the most likely scenario for a nuclear
exchange if one ever happens.
M65 "Atomic Annie" tactical artillery
The West, at present, has been deterred from direct
intervention in Ukraine as one obvious example, and for good reason. If anyone
has doubts about that reason, I suggest visiting the website NUKEMAP, which allows the user to choose a geographical location,
choose an explosive power in kilotons, and see the results. (Strategic ICBMs
and SLBMS typically have warheads in the hundreds of kilotons; gravity bombs
from bombers can be in the thousands of kilotons [aka megatons].) According to the Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists, “As of early 2022, we estimate that Russia has a
stockpile of approximately 4,477 nuclear warheads assigned for use by
long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces, which
is a slight decrease from last year.” Of these, 1,588 strategic warheads are
deployed: 812 on land-based missiles, 576 on submarine-launched ballistic
missiles (SLBMs), and 200 at heavy bomber bases. 977 strategic warheads are in
storage, though they could be activated in short order. 1,912 tactical warheads
are operational: some are seaborne and others are intended for land battlefield
use. (What is tactical and what is strategic has more to do with how a weapon
is used than explosive power per se, but in general tactical nukes are in the
10s of kilotons while strategic nukes are in the 100s of kilotons or more.) Another
1,500 warheads are retired but upgradable. This is a total of 5,977 warheads. US forces are comparable. So perhaps some caution – in both
directions to be sure – is justified. If unconvinced, use the NUKEMAP
calculator 5,977 times.