Thursday, August 3, 2023

Chances Are

Last night I watched The Cincinnati Kid, which I first saw in the theater as long ago as 1965. The cast is stellar, including Steve McQueen, Ann-Margret, Edward G. Robinson, and Tuesday Weld. The core of the film is a high stakes game of 5-card stud poker. It is a pretty good movie even though poker isn’t really my game.

from "The Cincinnati Kid"

I’ve played poker casually over the years – always with other casual players, always 5-card draw, and never for high stakes. In that kind of group I can hold my own, for I’m fairly disciplined at playing by the odds and not by intuition. But I know my limits. I’m not the best bluffer or recognizer of bluffs. My grasp of the odds is basic, not intimate. A seasoned amateur player, never mind a professional, would clean out my stake in short order. There was a poker game in my dorm at college every Saturday night, but I was sensible enough not to participate. I heard much wailing on Sundays from residents who had lost hundreds of dollars (in 1971 dollars). I didn’t want to be one of them. I’ve continued to avoid serious games ever since.
 
Playing cards date back to 1000 CE in China. They entered Europe via Egypt sometime around 1360. The suits of the cards varied from place to place and some of those variants still exist, but the current standard simplified suits of clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades date to 1480 when French entrepreneurs began producing them with stencils. Numerous games were invented for them, but poker is surprisingly recent, dating back to 1829 in New Orleans. It (including the name) apparently derives from the French poque, which was played in Louisiana during its French days. Other than betting and bluffing, the two games are not very close, however, so someone (we don’t know who) at some point must have sat down and deliberately invented the distinct rules for poker. By 1834 the rules were tweaked into their current form.
 
There are numerous variants of the game, the most popular being 5-card draw, 7-card draw, 5-card stud, 7-card stud, and Texas Hold’em. Texas Hold’em is a version of 7-card stud that made it into the World Series of Poker in 1971 and is currently the basis of the WSOP Main Event, last won by Daniel Weinman who took home 12.1 million dollars.
 
I don’t encourage gambling in a general way, since some people find it addictive. But for non-addictive types who know and keep to their limits, there are some valuable lessons in the game of poker. Primarily, it attunes one’s sense of probabilities in a more realistic direction. Playing odds is a long game for one thing, not a short term strategy. We tend to regard intuitively 70% odds in our favor as pretty safe bets for example. If you correctly calculate your odds of winning with a particular hand at 70%, however, you will still lose a not inconsequential 30% of the time. You must judge and hedge your bets accordingly in order to stay in the game. Thinking probabilistically rather than with unwarranted certainty is a skill worth cultivating off the poker table every bit as much as on it.
 
Samantha Fish – Lay It Down


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