Two years ago at the beginning of the pandemic the local
supermarket reserved the hours 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. for shoppers over 65, those
being in the age group most at risk. Much to my own surprise (my life feels
shorter than that) I solidly qualified, so I arrived at 7:30, figuring that
there would be few shoppers. My mistake. The store was jammed with old people.
“Are there really all these seniors in town?” I wondered. Yes, there are.
Thereafter I shopped after 9 with the general population; the store always was
much emptier then.
I should point out that Mendham is no retirement community.
The home prices are high while the taxes and living costs are simply
ridiculous. I live here only because I reside in my family home that my father
built; my mother grew up (and is buried, next to my dad and sister) four miles
from my door. I’m as local as one can get, and so will stay for sentimental
reasons as long as I can somehow afford it. But it is, in a general way, a
terrible place to retire. Instead, the town long has been known as a bedroom
community with a reputation for good schools that draws young (or young
middle-age) families with children. Yet somehow all these old folks are walking
around nowadays. Thinking about it, I realize I see more of them than kids. This reflects a trend that is not just local or national but
global. The world is getting older, a consequence of declining birthrates and
increasing longevity. In 1980 worldwide, children aged 0-9 years outnumbered
persons aged over 60 years 1.1 billion to 0.4 billion. According to the UN by
2030 those over 60 will outnumber those under 10 by 2.1 billion to 2.0 billion.
Those over 80 are increasing the fastest, from 137 million in 2017 to a
projected 425 million in 2050. In advanced countries the trend is more pronounced.
In Japan the median age is 48. It is 46 in Germany, 47 in Italy, and 45 in
Lithuania. In the US the median age is 38, which sounds young by comparison
until one remembers that in 1960 it was 29.5. A higher fertility rate (though
still well below replacement level) than most 1st World nations
along with immigration have kept the US median age rising more slowly than
elsewhere, but the trend is steadily upward all the same. There are economic consequences to an aging population. Fewer
younger workers means a shortage of skilled labor which restrains production.
On the upside, this should mean rising real wages. (I know they are falling at
the moment due to inflation, but on a longer scale the pressure is upward.)
This in turn promotes automation and thereby increases productivity per worker.
On the downside for those workers, any higher wages will probably be taxed away
in order to pay for the health care needs of the elderly as the dependency
ratio rises. Accordingly, economic growth in aging countries tends to be anemic
in all aspects other than health care and retirement services. Advanced countries
with low immigration (e.g. South Korea and Japan) are facing absolute declines
in population, with the biggest drop among the young. The growing proportion of
elders in the population is well positioned to vote itself more benefits as
well. At the current time my taxes (federal, state, and
[especially] local) well outweigh any benefits, and I don’t see that changing
anytime soon – maybe never. So, I am not at the receiving end of any dependency ratio – rather the reverse. Still, I can understand the grumpiness
so many of the young express toward gray hairs. All I can say is that you’ll
join us (actually, replace us) sooner than you think. And you’ll then outnumber
the kids by even more than we do you. Maybe you should start practicing now the
art of shaking a rake and yelling “Get off my lawn!” But if stores offer senior
shopping hours, I recommend skipping them.
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