A
horrific week on Wall Street prompted me to seek out diversions, especially in
the hours before (or worse, instead of) sleep that otherwise were spent
calculating losses. Bourbon was a tempting option but ultimately a counterproductive
one, so I uncorked a few books instead. They were less cheering, but the
mornings after were less painful – at least until trading started. If the
reader of this post is similarly minded, here are five recent reads I can
recommend for next week: one for each day of trading. Whatever happens next on
the NYSE floor, all are worth a look.
****
****
This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Princeton economists Carmen Reinhart
and Kenneth Rogoff
Published
in 2009 (and read by me back then), this remains the definitive examination of the 2006-2008 crisis. I reopened
the book last Tuesday. While that might seem to have been an exercise in
masochism, there actually is some good news hidden in it. Crashes are
unavoidable "equal opportunity crises" that will happen regardless of
the political or economic system. "A financial system can collapse
under the pressure of greed, politics, and profits no matter how well regulated
it seems to be," Reinhart and Rogoff tell us, and they give an abundance
of international and historical examples to prove it. What is the good news in
that? It is that financial collapses, not market drops, are what do deep and
lasting harm (as after 1929, 1987, and 2008) to economies. Not every stock
market crash precedes a financial crisis. Many don’t. Even the particularly bad
2000 crash, for instance, while it hurt the tech sector, left banks largely unscathed
so the effects were otherwise mild. Today
the financial institutions are in better shape than in 2000. So, the economic
threat is not structural, but literally viral. We’ve seen and gotten past viral
scares before (e.g. SARS), though of course there are no guarantees things will
play out the same way this time.
The 1987
and 2008 market drops were both preceded by a free fall in real estate prices,
which exposed over-extended banks to bad mortgages. That is not a problem this
year. Even were real estate to drop (so far it’s not happening) the banks are
capitalized well enough this time to handle it. Real estate is a frequent
source of past crises, by the way. As far back as 33 CE a Roman financial crisis
began with a decline in real estate values. Lenders and investors (many of them
senators) discovered their mortgages were larger than the underlying property
values. Tacitus tells us “many were utterly ruined. The destruction of private
wealth precipitated the fall of rank and reputation, until at last the emperor
interposed his aid by distributing throughout the banks a hundred million
sesterces.” The emperor Tiberius was a tyrannical old pervert but he was also a
budget hawk who had filled up the Roman treasury, so he was able to bail out
the financiers. The recovery was slow nonetheless. It is not even clear the
bailout helped in a broader sense though it did ease panic. A similar crisis when
Julius Caesar marched on Rome (Julius had no money to spare to bail out anyone)
resolved itself in about the same time frame without intervention.
**** ****
Icarus by Leon Meyer
This
is truly excellent South African crime fiction. Multiple storylines with multiple
perspectives intertwine. The plot centers on the murder of a charming but
amoral young entrepreneur Ernst Richter who had his fingers in everything from
an internet alibi site for cheaters to counterfeit wines to blackmail.
Richter’s alibi site provided false records (airline tickets, hotel bills, restaurant
receipts, and so on) to clients in order to cover up their indiscretions in
other locations. Recovering alcoholic detective Benny Griessel, a recurring
character in Meyer’s novels, assists Vaughn Cupido in the murder investigation by
Cape Town’s Priority Crimes unit. It is well that Griessel is not heading up
this one, because he has fallen off the wagon after a close colleague committed
a murder/suicide. He nonetheless does his part.
Many
countries have ethnic divisions – sometimes deadly ones – but few are as
fraught with complicated history as those in South Africa. Not even the USA comes
close to matching the complexity of South Africa, which is saying a lot. Meyer
navigates this cultural mix in very nuanced and human terms. “Human” is not
always a compliment, but in this case it is.
**** ****
The
Blood Countess by Andre Codrescu
Aside
from Vlad Dracul, the 16th century Hungarian aristocrat Elizabeth Bathory is
commonly cited as an inspiration for the modern version of the vampire myth.
She was tried for murdering peasant girls: possibly several hundred, purportedly
to bathe in their blood. The record of her trial still exists but at the time
it was kept hush hush because the Bathory family had a claim to the throne and
this scandal would have been hard to spin. Elizabeth was confined to a castle
room as punishment.
Codrescu
originally planned a straight-up history, but instead switched over to a horror
novel, which was published in 1995. The story is narrated by a Bathory family
descendant as a statement to a judge in 1990s New York. He claims his crime of
murder is connected to Elizabeth and therefore he recounts her history.
The
prose flows smoothly, the historical elements are well-researched, and the ambience
of 1990s Hungary nicely evoked. This is not a vampire novel, though there are
more than a few hints of the paranormal. It is mostly a historical drama depicting
Elizabeth as an intelligent sadistic psychopath rather than a creature of the
night. She is all the scarier for that.
**** ****
Forbidden
Hollywood by Mark A. Vieira
One
of the most interesting periods in film history is the pre-code era from 1930
to the middle of 1934. The Hays Production Code was a self-censorship code
formulated by the film industry to head off government regulation. Though it
existed in 1930, the studios didn’t start to enforce it strictly until 1934
when the threat of government intervention became more real. Every era
generates its share of garbage, and this one is no exception, but when the
pre-codes were good they were very good. The characters have complexity, moral
ambiguity, and erotic lives that are very human (in a way often lacking in
films today) in films such as Baby Face, Skyscraper Souls, Night Nurse, Red Dust (The New York Times reviewer said that the title was off by one
letter), Waterloo Bridge (the harsh 1931 version, not the sentimental 1940
one), Scarface, and many many others. TCM has an excellent DVD collection of
these films called Forbidden Hollywood and this is the companion book. It is
a brief but serviceable history of the era and contains backstories on numerous
films.
**** ****
Joker by Brian Azzarello
The
first decade of the 21st century was a fine time for comics and
graphic novels. Many of them were aimed solidly at adults. Marvel had the most
successful decade, but DC had its moments. Brian Azzarello’s Joker came out the same year as Christopher
Nolan’s The Dark Knight movie with
the iconic portrayal of the Joker by Heath Ledger. Azzarello’s Joker is very
different but equally fascinating. Heath Ledger’s Joker is not actually crazy.
He has thought about life, concluded that he is a nihilist, and embraced nihilism:
witness his “agent of chaos” speech. Azzarello’s Joker, while intelligent in
his own way, is not thoughtful. He is ruled by emotion: witness his “what I
hate” speech. He is an impulsive solipsistic psychopath who terrifies everyone (including
Penguin, Riddler, Dent, and Croc) except Harley Quinn. Harley, who apparently
enjoys the danger of his company for reasons of her own, is not a major
character in this comic but she is there. Fair warning: the comic is more
graphically violent than one expects from DC.
Joker (which has nothing
to do with the storyline of the 2019 movie of the same title) is narrated by
the character Johnny Frost, a small time hoodlum. Frost decides to get
ahead in the world of crime by tying his star to Joker's on the day Joker is
released from Arkham Asylum. Accepted as Joker’s sidekick, Frost quickly
realizes he is over his head, but he is unable to extricate himself as the
mayhem mounts. Frost knows Joker does not tolerate betrayal. The comic implies
that there is a way in which the various Jokers of page and screen connect: there
may be multiple sequential Jokers, for Johnny (in a kind of Stockholm syndrome)
seems ready to fill the character’s shoes before the story is done. Batman, who
doesn’t appear until near the end of the comic, therefore will never defeat Joker.
Another will take his place. It’s never possible entirely to defeat the dark
impulses embodied by Joker. Batman (and we) can only continue the fight in
hopes of limiting his influence.
Sammy Davis, Jr. – The Joker